2018-19年度巴西棉花产量创新纪录

Brazil's 2018-19 cotton crop to make new record: CEPEA
The 2018-19 Braziliancottoncrop may once again hit a record in terms of production, boosted by increase in crop area, according to Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA). The area under cotton has increased due to higher profitability of cotton compared to other crops and to the favourable scenario for anticipated contracts.
As a result, for the second year in a row, Brazil would be the fourth largest cotton producer in the world. In terms of exports, if it surpasses India, it may be the second biggest exporter, only after the United States.
Meanwhile, data from the Secretariat of ForeignTrade(SECEX) indicates that 670,300 tons of cotton was exported in the last five months of 2018. In December 2018 alone, the monthly volume hit the record of 214,600 tons. If the current phase continues, total volume of cotton exported till July 2019 may surpass 2017-18 domestic surplus of 1.3 million tons.
The area under cotton has risen by 23.2 per cent, as per estimates of Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB). Even if the yield decreases 4.4 per cent to 1,633 kilos per hectare, total cotton production would be 2.364 million tons, i.e. 17.8 per cent more than the previous season.
Conab forecasts domestic consumption to increase by 7.1 per cent over 2017-18 crop to 750,000 tons in 2018-19, the highest in three seasons. As a result, for 2018-19, Conab estimates a total supply (initial stocks + production + imports) of 2.99 million tons and total demand (domestic consumption + exports) of 2.2 million tons. Therefore, ending inventories would be 859,900 tons.
The 2018-19 harvest would be available inmarketfrom August 2019 onwards, and would meet the demand until July 2020. For this period, the domestic surplus would total 1.6 million tons, a new record.
译文如下：
2018-19年度巴西棉花产量创新纪录
应用经济学高级研究中心(CEPEA)表示，受作物面积增加的推动，巴西2018-19年棉花产量可能再次创下纪录。由于与其他作物相比，棉花的盈利能力更高，而且预期合同的前景有利，因此棉花的面积有所增加。
因此，巴西将连续第二年成为全球第四大棉花生产国。就出口而言，如果超过印度，该国可能成为仅次于美国的第二大出口国。
与此同时，来自对外贸易秘书处(SECEX)的数据显示，2018年最后5个月的棉花出口量为67.03万吨。仅在2018年12月，月出口量就达到了创纪录的214,600吨。如果当前阶段继续下去，到2019年7月，棉花出口总量可能超过2017-18年国内130万吨。
根据巴西国家供应公司(CONAB)的估计，棉花种植面积增加了23.2%。即使产量下降4.4%至每公顷1633公斤，棉花总产量也将达236.4万吨，比前一季增加17.8%。
Conab预计，国内消费量比2018-19年增长7.1%，达到75万吨，为三个季度以来的最高水平。因此，Conab估计，在2018-19年期间，总供应(初始库存+生产+进口)为299万吨，总需求(国内消费+出口)为220万吨。因此，期末库存为859,900吨。
2018-19年的收成将于2019年8月起投放市场，并将满足需求直到2020年7月。在这一期间，国内盈余将达160万吨，创新记录。