位置:网站首页 >>产业观察>>正文

2017/18年度美国植棉面积预计增长10%至420万公顷

来源:fiber2fashion | 作者:fiber2fashion | 时间:2017-9-14 9:46:37 | 订阅《东方纺织》周刊

The cotton area in the United States is expected to expand by 10 per cent to 4.2 million hectares in 2017-18

Owing to an increase in planted area, the world cotton production will rise by two per cent to 23.4 million tons, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has predicted in its first estimate of 2017-18 crop. After two seasons of contraction, cotton planted area is expected to grow by five per cent to 30.6 million tons for the 2017-18 crop.

The world average yield is projected to decline by two per cent to 764 kg/ha, after improving by 13 per cent to 781 kg/ha in 2016-17, the ICAC Secretariat said.

In 2016-17, the cotton area in India, the largest cotton-producing country, fell by 12 per cent to 10.5 million hectares due to competition from food crops. However, the average yield recovered by 16 per cent to 560 kg/ha, and production in 2016-17 is estimated to rise by 2 per cent to 5.9 million tons. In 2017-18, India’s area is forecast to recover by 7 per cent to 11.2 million hectares as firm domestic cotton prices and less attractive prices for competing crops attract more farmers to cotton. Assuming a national average yield of 530 kg/ha, production will increase by 1 per cent to 6 million tons.

Cotton area in China declined for five consecutive seasons, reaching 2.8 million hectares in 2016-17. China’s cotton production in 2016-17 is estimated at 4.7 million tons. In 2017-18, its cotton area may expand by 3 per cent to 2.9 million hectares, and cotton output in China could reach 4.8 million tons in 2017-18.

Following a season of higher than expected yields and firm cotton prices, cotton area in the United States is expected to expand by 10 per cent to 4.2 million hectares in 2017-18. The average yield in the US improved by 12 per cent to 958 kg/ha in 2016-17, and production is estimated at 3.7 million tons. In 2017-18, production in the US is projected to rise by 7 per cent to 4 million tons, assuming an average yield of 935 kg/ha.

A significant drop in yields and poor returns in 2015-16 led to a 12 per cent decrease to 2.5 million hectares in Pakistan’s cotton area in 2016-17. The average yield recovered by 32 per cent to 699 kg/ha and output is estimated up by 17 per cent to 1.8 million tons. Pakistan’s cotton area is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to 2.6 million hectares, and assuming a yield of 739 kg/ha, Pakistan’s production could reach 1.9 million tons.

World cotton mill use is expected to remain stable at 24.1 million tons in 2016-17 as high cotton prices discouraged growth in demand. However, mill use may expand by 1 per cent to 24.3 million tons in 2017-18. Mill use in the top three consuming countries, China, India, and Pakistan, is expected to remain unchanged from 2016-17. However, mill use is forecast to grow in Turkey, Bangladesh, and Vietnam by 2 per cent to 1.5 million tons, by 5 per cent to 1.5 million tons, and by 7 per cent to 1.2 million tons, respectively.

Given the continued growth in mill use in countries that depend on imports, world cotton trade is projected to increase by 5 per cent to 8.2 million tons in 2017-18 from 7.8 million tons in 2016-17. Bangladesh is likely to maintain its position as the world’s largest importer of cotton with its volume forecast to rise by 5 per cent to 1.5 million tons. Vietnam’s import volume is projected to grow by 8 per cent to 1.3 million tons. Given the large exportable surplus and strong demand, exports from the US are anticipated to rise by 17 per cent to 3.2 million tons in 2017-18. India’s exports are forecast to fall by 7 per cent to 875,000 tons in 2017-18.

译文如下:

2017/18年度美国植棉面积预计增长10%至420万公顷

国际棉花咨询委员会(ICAC)发布2017/18年度全球棉花产需预测称,由于种植面积增加5%至3060万公顷,2017/18年度全球棉花产量预计将增长2%至2340万吨。

据国际棉花咨询委员会秘书处称,继2016/17年度全球棉花平均单产上涨13%至781公斤/公顷后,2017/18年度全球棉花平均单产预计将下降2%至764公斤/公顷。

2016/17年度,印度作为全球最大的棉花生产国,由于粮食作物竞争,其棉花种植面积下降12%至1050万公顷,但其收割率却上涨16%至560公斤/公顷,该年度棉花产量上涨2%至590万吨。2017/18年度,印度植棉面积预计增长7%至1120万公顷。按近五年平均单产530公斤/公顷推算,印度棉花产量预计增长1%至600万吨。

中国棉花种植面积连续五年下降,2016/17年度植棉面积达到280万公顷。其棉花产量预计为470万吨。2017/18年度中国植棉面积预计增长3%至290万公顷,棉花产量预计增加到480万吨。

2017/18年度美国植棉面积预计增长10%至420万公顷,按平均单产935公斤/公顷推算,棉花产量预计为400万吨,同比增长7%。

巴基斯坦植棉面积预计增长3%至260万公顷,按平均单产739公斤/公顷推算,棉花产量预计增加到190万吨。

2017/18年度,全球棉花消费量预计增长1%,为2410万吨,中国、印度和巴基斯坦的用棉量保持稳定,土耳其、孟加拉国和越南消费量预计分别增长2%、5%和7%,达到150万吨、150万吨和120万吨。

由于进口国棉花消费量持续增加,2017/18年度全球棉花进口量预计增长5%,达到820万吨。孟加拉国进口量预计增长5%至150万吨,越南进口量预计增长8%至130万吨。中国棉花供需存在缺口,储备棉库存下降,如果能够增发配额,棉花进口量预计增长15%至110万吨。美棉出口供应量增加且出口需求旺盛,2017/18年度美棉出口量预计增长17%至320万吨。印度出口量预计下降7%至87.5万吨。

(编译:杨朝霞)


    (本网尊重各兄弟网站及独立撰稿人之版权,如发现本网刊登您的稿件而未署名,请联系我们.同时本网也欢迎对市场具有敏锐判断和独立见解的行业人士前来投稿,投稿邮箱info@168tex.com 电话:0512-63082910)
责任编辑:杨朝霞